Key Additions:
Javier Vazquez (SP), Derek Lowe (SP), Kenshin Kawakami (SP), Garret Anderson (LF), Boone Logan (RP), Dave Ross (CA), Eric O’Flaherty (RP)
Key Subtractions:
Brent Lillibridge (IF), Ruben Gotay (IF), John Smoltz (SP), Mike Hampton (SP), Chuck James (SP), Will Ohman (RP)
A look at the lineup:
With much of the Braves’ offseason focus on revamping the pitching rotation, the lineup will look a lot like it did towards the tail end of 2008. The entire infield is back and Garret Anderson is the only new regular in the outfield. Braves’ management was unable to replace the bat of Mark Teixeira (traded at the 2008 deadline), which means manager Bobby Cox will need to find power production from a multitude of players.
Catcher: Brian McCann is the team’s catcher of both the present and the future. Only 24, McCann has already become one of the game’s best. Last season, his .896 OPS was best in the majors among catchers with at least 250 at-bats. He also hit more homers (23) than all but one other catcher and drove in 87 runs. David Ross, who managed a .721 OPS in 142 at-bats with Cincinnati and Boston last season, was brought in to back up McCann. If he can’t get the job done, Clint Sammons could get a shot.
First Base: Casey Kotchman, the centerpiece of the Teixeira deal, will man first base for the Braves in 2009. Kotchman’s .738 OPS in 2008 was one of the worst among qualified first baseman. Having hit just 33 homers in 1440 career plate appearances, the 26 year old lefty is far from a power source. The Braves will hope that he can break out this season as he approaches the prime years of his career. Greg Norton was resigned as his primary backup.
Second Base: Kelly Johnson will be back at second for Atlanta in 2009. Johnson’s .795 OPS was seventh best among qualified second baseman last season and, despite struggling in the field, he has proven to be a valuable commodity at the plate and will likely be counted on to produce from the bottom of the order this season. Martin Prado, who had an .838 OPS in 228 at-bats last season, will be Johnson’s primary backup and will see a handful of starts as the team’s primary utility man.
Shortstop: Yunel Escobar is quickly becoming one of the finest shortstops in the game. In 2008, the 26 year old was third among shortstops with a .366 OBP and was top 10 in OPS. He was slightly above average defensively and has shown improvement over the last three seasons. Escobar will likely be called on to set the table for Chipper Jones in the two spot. Omar Infante will be the primary backup to Escobar, but will be called on to play a utility role similar to last season.
Third Base: Chipper Jones will turn 37 early in the 2009 season, but there is little reason to believe he won’t be productive. In 439 at-bats last season, Jones hit .364 and flirted with .400 for a majority of the season. He belted 22 homeruns and his OPS dipped to a still impressive .952 after three straight seasons above 1.000. Jones was above average in the field last year and, if healthy, should be one of the game’s top third baseman again in 2009. Prado and Infante will back Jones up at third.
Left Field: Lefty Garret Anderson and righty Matt Diaz are expected to platoon in left field. The newcomer Anderson has a career OPS of .815 against right handed pitchers, but that number drops to .751 against lefties. Diaz, on the other hand, sports a .869 OPS against lefties and a .706 OPS against righties. Both should be slightly above average in the field and should make for a solid platoon.
Center Field: Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco will battle for the centerfield job and likely the leadoff spot in Spring Training. Blanco got the best of Anderson for the fourth outfield spot last season, but with Mark Kotsay out the door, this season’s battle will determine the starter. Anderson, who seems to have a leg up heading into Spring Training, sported a .338 OBP in 146 plate appearances late last season for Atlanta. He stole 10 bases in that time and could easily swipe 30-plus as the starter. Blanco saw 519 plate appearances in 2008, but put up an OPS of just .676. Both were about average in the field in 2008. The loser of this battle will not make the opening day roster unless there is an injury or manager Bobby Cox decides to keep 5 outfielders.
Right Field: Jeff Francoeur was arguably the worst regular in the major leagues last season and actually was demoted to double-A for a short period. His .653 OPS was one of the worst among all qualified hitters. His .286 wOBA was better than only Houston’s Michael Bourn. He was on base just 29.4% of the time. He hit just 11 homers in 599 at-bats after hitting 29 in 2006 and 19 in 2007. His -4.0 UZR plummeted from 18.5 the year before, showing a drastic drop in fielding. He was worth -$5.4 million according to Fangraphs, which was the worst in baseball among regulars and near the bottom among every player who stepped on the field last season. Francoeur claims he will be better in 2009. He better be or, needless to say, he won’t have a job by midseason.
A look at the pitching:
A few weeks ago, I wrote a full Braves Rotation preview, which you can read here.
Starters: With three additions this offseason, the Braves pitching rotation will have a completely new look in 2009. Former Dodger Derek Lowe was signed, Javier Vazquez was acquired from the White Sox, and Kenshin Kawakami was signed out of Japan. Jair Jurrjens and Tom Glavine will return to round out the staff.
Lowe, who is expected to be the ace, will enter the season at the age of 35. The right-handed pitching former Dodger has pitched at least 182 innings every season since 2001 and, in that 8 year span, his FIP has reach no higher than 4.26 (2003 and 2004) and has been as low as 3.26 (2008).
Vazquez is often referred to as a career underachiever, but he’s been extremely productive in his career. The 32 year old righty was a bit unlucky last season in Chicago, putting up a 12-16 record and 4.67 ERA. His 2007 production (15-8 3.74 ERA) is probably more indicative of how good he is. Vazquez should be a more than capable top of the rotation pitcher.
Jurrjens will begin his second full season in 2009. The 23-year old righty made a team-high 31 starts as a rookie last year and went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA. One of the best young pitchers in the game, Jurrjens should be even better this season.
Kawakami will man the fourth spot in the rotation. The 33 year old is anything but a sure thing, having played his first 11 pro seasons in Japan. He is coming off what might have been his best professional season at 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA. Over the past 8 seasons, his worst ERA was 3.74 and was below 3.00 three times.
Glavine will be the only southpaw in the opening day rotation. At 42-years old, there is a good possibility that this will be the future Hall of Famer’s final season. After managing to stay healthy throughout his career, Glavine struggled with injuries last season and was just 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA in 13 starts.
If injuries force anyone in the top five to miss time, Jorge Campillo, Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo Reyes, Anthony Lerew, and James Parr are the likely candidates to pick up the slack. Tommy Hanson is one of the major league’s top five prospects and could make his debut in the Braves rotation later this season.
Bullpen: If healthy, the Braves bullpen has a chance to be top notch. Mike Gonzalez will return to the closer’s role. The lefty had 14 saves in 36 appearances last season, striking out 44 in just under 34 innings. Rafael Soriano was expected to close last year, but continued to struggle with injuries. In just 13 appearances, he had 3 saves and a 2.57 ERA. After an outstanding 2007 campaign, Peter Moylan had Tommy John Surgery early last season to repair a bone spur. He is expected to return in May, and if healthy, will battle with Soriano for the primary setup role.
The rest of the bullpen is far from set in stone, with Blaine Boyer, Manny Acosta, Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle, and Boone Logan expected to compete for the final spots.
Outlook:
The Braves pitching staff has a chance to be one of the best in the majors, but the offense leaves much to be desired. The addition of Vazquez, Lowe, and Kawakami to a staff that also includes Jurrjens, Glavine, and a ton of capable replacement starters should keep this team competitive. When push comes to shove, however, the offense just doesn’t stack up with the league’s top tier teams. Unless Garret Anderson, Jeff Francouer, and Casey Kotchman can provide consistent production in the middle of the order, the Braves will not keep up in what will again be a very strong division.
This team heads into 2009 with a shot at the playoffs, but an injury here or a Francouer-like collapse there and this could easily be another disappointing October for Braves fans.
Prediction:
The Braves will compete until around the all-star break, but will fall out of the race by late July. There is not enough offense and too many injury risks on the pitching staff to keep this team competitive for 162 games. They will finish 80-82.
